Gustavo Ballvé on March 11th, 2010
Food for thought, Home, Mental models

We can’t resist repeating this funny story about change – and we suspect more than a few readers will relate to it. But ultimately this is about how feeble our attempts at forecasting really are. For some things we are way too pessimistic and tend to ignore the exponential aspects of some innovation curves. For others, we are way too optimistic. The trick then is to not rely on either.

As an extra exercise suggested by a reader, try imagining someone writing this text 30 years from now.

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