Gustavo Ballvé on October 30th, 2010
Food for thought, Home, Investment Themes, Portfolio Management

Recent story on Foreign Affairs about this vital topic doesn’t necessarily add a lot of insight, but serves as a nice starting point for more reading on the subject. One excerpt sums up many of the most important sources of concern – it’s not just Europe and Japan who need to worry: “For today’s affluent Western economies, the coming demographic challenge of stagnant and aging populations combined with mounting health and pension claims on a shrinking pool of prospective workers is already generating concern, especially in Europe and Japan. But at the same time, demographic constraints in the rising economies that are expected to fuel future global growth are more serious and intractable than generally recognized.”

Other posts on demographics:

  • The informational dilemma“This roundtable on “The Demographic Dilemma” by Booz & Co.’s magazine isn’t a game changer by any means. However, it brought to light the informational challenge as Ms. Wang insisted on it: what are the actual measures of the “impact” of aging, what should we be looking at? Without information that leads to intelligence and then action, it’s just an empty debate. Our main point is that this informational dilemma occurs in plenty of other fields – climate change, perhaps? – and that we must always be mindful of the fact that sometimes there’s simply not enough information to draw insightful, actionable conclusions.”
  • Demographics and the US recession“Official immigration decreasing, previously “hot” areas with unprecedented swings, NY’s numbers… Sure, a data point does not a trend make, but demographics are too powerful to ignore as a long-term driver. And it’s hard to argue that the US is well-positioned.”

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