Gustavo Ballvé on July 7th, 2011
Food for thought, Home, Investment Themes, Portfolio Management, Risk management, Signal or Noise

It’s been interesting to read the coverage of Brazilian “boom or bust” stories. Some of it is well written – that’s the few we have linked to here, and even so we still have minor issues with the stories. While it’s obvious that not even local writers get everything right, in some other articles it seems like getting better sources or digging deeper would have really made those stories better or more balanced. As one of the writers below says, there are many new “experts” in Brazil – and some haven’t done the homework. We have been around for a while and we still don’t pretend to know which precise direction Brazil is taking at any point in time. We seek to assess major risks and find that, most of the time, conservatism is best served by knowing very well the companies that go through our filters and patiently waiting for opportunities. The value of cash as a strategic asset is way underrated. Links inside.

LINKS:

Long-term funding holds key to Brazil’s future economic stability – The Banker (login required, but free for 5 articles) – An example of a good, well-researched story. It depicts Brazil’s growth in light of the kind of credit we have a lot of – consumer – and the kind we don’t have enough: long-term funding, mortgages and such. And it does so by interviewing the main players in Brazil’s banking industry. This March 2011 piece on whether or not there’s a credit bubble in Brazil was also well-written.

Is Brazil’s economic boom ready to bust? – BBC News – This one doesn’t “take sides”, which is smart given the “too-hard” category of the subject.

Brazil’s giddy convergence – New York Times – Roger Cohen writes a tale of how far Brazil has come since he lived here, and how far it still has to go. He’s surprised at how many people now claim to be “pros” in Brazil, and concludes: “I’m bullish on Brazil, but some of the new “pros” are going to get burned. (…) Convergence will continue — and in time separate the real pros from the amateurs in the new global economy.”

RELATED BUYSIDERS.COM STORIES:

Brazil #1 in AT Kearney report – June 12th, 2011

Noise and irrational behavior – May 4th, 2011

Brazil credit boom in the Financial Times – Feb. 24th, 2011 – by the way Paul Marshall has written an update a few days ago.

Brazil in the press – September 2010

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