It’s been a while since my last post and the explanation is simple: earnings season, a perfect occasion to test hypotheses and reconnect with contacts in the industries we cover – but also a perfect storm of incoming noise regarding companies we own (or would like to, at the right price). In any aspect, a huge but immensely rewarding time drain (I should say “investment”)! Farnam St. blog has just interviewed Michael Mauboussin and it’s a good read, especially because Shane Parrish asks about how Mauboussin developed into his current role and it’s an interesting story.
Two years ago the S&P downgraded the credit rating of the United States sovereign debt, triggering a global equities sell-off and motivating me to write a long post called “Don’t panic”. If excessive pessimism brought on by third-party “research” was unwarranted, excessive optimism nowadays is too. There will certainly be a large number of articles saying how bad the S&P screwed up – first one right here – so, again, read them with the necessary pounds of salt. I haven’t done, and won’t do, the research on the current state of the US economy to say anything about it. I’m still qualified enough to say, again, don’t panic – but don’t believe the hype either.