The 1st one regards AB-InBev and the fact that it’s still hard for “foreigners” to fully grasp it. Yesterday’s LEX column on the company has flattering but less than enlightened comments and puts way too much weight on the P/E ratio. The 2nd one is about Netflix, and this NYT story sheds some (more) light on the company. It’s about creative destruction stimulated by the company itself. It doesn’t guarantee Netflix will win as the technology shifts continually challenge its business model, but it gives the company a fighting chance. Again, such a shifting business model is probably not the best playground for investors, but Netflix is still worth tracking for all the other reasons.
As we blog and try to become more transparent for investors, potential investors and even invested companies, we’re aware of the dangers of over-exposure and “posing”, as these two NY Times pieces highlight. We feel we’re safe because 1) Transparency has always been our culture: we pioneered fund reports in Brazil, then annual investor meetings, and now this blog – and more to come; 2) We’re aware of the risks and have built our processes and incentive systems accordingly; and 3) We tend to assume we’re wrong – meaning we’re conservative. Since we recognize we’re learning as much as everybody else is, we will prefer to err on the side of omission.
Zynga keeps popping up on the news as it reportedly heads for an IPO, and one piece asked if it can become the Google of online games. Sure, the business model seems fantastic – precisely what usually attracts competitors. So far they have suffered and didn’t really appear to threaten Zynga. Now Disney is making a move and it’s easy to imagine other players joining the battle. Plus, thinking about games reminded us of Electronic Arts.
Thought-provoking presentation on (buzzword alert!) “information shadows”, “the sensor web”, cloud computing, data collection/ processing/ visualization, local marketing + micropayments, P2P credit-card payments, social network risk evaluation… and how all this is coming together to create new products and services that feed on the cloud and/or organize it. It’s still impossible to tell just how practical this is and who will make money from this, but it’s nice food for thought. Also a comment on the skill of networking.
Strategy & Business published a review for The Curse of The Mogul, which we’ve read recently. It’s a must-read for several reasons: media, capital allocation, competitive strategy and leadership. Not that we agree with Greenwald 100%. Chapter 2, on competitive strategy, is especially interesting because it assesses the competitive strategy framework from a specific industry’s standpoint (always better than ‘generic speeches’) and it was useful for thinking about other industries as well.
Nielsen (of TV ratings fame) is set to make a return to the equity markets merely 4 years after being taken private. The former VNU was one of our international holdings that were LBO’d in the final stages of the booming markets in 2006 and early 2007, along with others. These cycles make for interesting opportunities to reacquaint ourselves with companies we admire in businesses we like, and hopefully our efforts to understand these companies in the past will again pay off.
We came across a report by the Kaiser Family Foundation on the media usage of 8 to 18-year-olds and it’s loaded with interesting stats (highlights inside). Some things translate to Brazil better than others, and this report is full of “traps” in that regard. Overall, it’s quite useful for those interested in Media and Tech.
OK, funny things first: Buffett playing Axl Rose is awesome. Less impressive is him playing a hip-hop artist, but it’s alright (both videos embedded inside). Viral videos can be a smart marketing tool, and these work. Back to seriousness: Business Week had a cover article by Alice “Snowball” Schroeder interviewing CEOs who have had Buffett in their boards. Interesting read.
We’ve discussed crowdsourcing and Netflix more than once. That it works for some uses better than for others is pretty clear… But Netflix has apparently messed up the database used in the original contest and that allowed some contestants to identify the actual people behind the movie choices, despite the promise of privacy. Needless to say, the FCC wasn’t too happy about it – and Netflix had to cancel its “Contest 2.0″, at least for now. Doesn’t mean that the tool doesn’t work, it just means that you have to be careful using it.
The first comic book to ever feature the Super-Man character, Action Comics #1 dated June 1938, was just sold for $1 million. Considering its original price of $0.10, this is an approx. 25% nominal and 21% real IRR for the past 72 years. Eat you heart out, Warren Buffett. Bonus links inside.
