Economy
It’s been 20 years since the “Confisco”, the seizure of assets from current and savings accounts designed (so to speak) to deter then-rampant hyperinflation. Brazil was then in default on its external debt and had precious little reserves… But the point here is not to judge decisions taken under extreme distress. Twenty years. The very fact that it seems like ancient history shows how far we’ve come, yet it still serves as a fresh warning.
Prof. Joe Stiglitz has been on a tear recently, first describing 5 lessons we should learn from the crisis and later presenting a tough message at the American Economic Association. The bulk of the messages: Wall Street ain’t that smart, and it failed miserably to perform on its purpose. Before the reader thinks “well academe didn’t do much better”, he also blames economists for continuing to rely on “rational player” models.
They took questions from Columbia grad students and the event was broadcast live by CNBC. It has an eerie feel to it – with the whole “must keep spirits high” approach. That said, both men think in the long term (15+ years) and it’s always interesting to be reminded of some basic concepts.
The first 4-5 pages in GMO’s Q3 2009 letter are entertaining for their irony, but it’s hard to disagree with Mr. Grantham’s conclusion: concentrate your portfolio in quality U.S. stocks with a global earnings mix. We’d extend that to some non-US quality stocks with diversified earnings sources, of course.