Foodforthought
We can’t resist repeating this funny story about change – and we suspect more than a few readers will relate to it. But ultimately this is about how feeble our attempts at forecasting really are. For some things we are way too pessimistic and tend to ignore the exponential aspects of some innovation curves. For others, we are way too optimistic. The trick then is to not rely on either.
Buffett used the Thriftsville vs. Squanderville metaphor in this brilliant article back in 2003. Now it’s Charlie Munger’s turn with a parable on the wealth of a nation and how to lose it. It’s a fun read.
“If we did not do this already, would we, knowing what we now know, go into it?” Peter Drucker’s question can be applied in both the big picture and small picture – from the broadest strategic moves of your company to its tiniest daily processes. More than that: try substituting “company” in the previous sentence for “department”, “nation”, “regulatory system” and even “life”.
How does “fixing” Toyota (whatever that means) change a country’s demographics time-bomb or its still-rattling financial system? While there are interesting food-for-thought bits in these pieces, they all seem to give way too much importance to “planning a country” in a world where central planning (again, whatever that means) for a country of this size and relatively free market is ever less effective – if it ever was.
In his latest post, Tom Barrack of Colony Capital writes about some similarities between a big wave surfer and a successful investor. While we would be even more conservative in general, we agree with most the “credos”.
Our thoughts go out to the families affected by floods everywhere, but this picture had us thinking about the book “Too Big To Fail”. Unlike other books about the financial crisis that shook the world recently, Mr. Sorkin’s book deals with the real-time, day-to-day background discussions and decision-making in the eye of the storm. And decisions made in times of turmoil can lead to less-than-ideal outcomes and a false sense of security.
David Brooks has a nice teaser article on the current and future economic “protocols”. His tip is to not just read the book he’s reviewing but another that complements what he feels are the first book’s weaknesses. Always a nice way to help readers better form opinions of their own, and it’s what we will always try to do here as well. Also includes links to other columns of his.
Continue reading about Christmas bonus, part 2: David Brooks
Sometimes we’ll publish “older” stuff as part of what we like to call “weekend catch-up reading”. This time it’s a Fortune Magazine interview with Joel I. Klen, New York City’s school chancellor and former CEO of Bertelsmann’s USA operations. He’s best know as the Dept. of Justice’s anti-trust czar that sued Microsoft, so it’s telling [...]
Fred Wilson had an interesting post today on action oriented entrepreneurs/ leaders. While we don’t agree 100%, there are some interesting teasers to think about not only for the companies we study but also for our own. The situation one wants to get to is to have a team composed of people with diverse backgrounds and complementary skills – and personalities – combined with carefully-planned incentives that align individuals and teams with the company’s vision. Easier said than done, but the closer you get to this the better.
Booz Allen is offering words of caution on crowdsourcing. It is a new thing, therefore relatively untested, and it certainly has its optimal applications and its limits – which probably haven’t been found yet. It’s just another tool available and should be subject to the same rigorous analysis before the company starts using it.