The Deal Professors takes the SEC’s “show-off” case against Reed Hasting’s post on Facebook as an excuse to argue for the end of Regulation Fair Disclosure. We don’t agree at all.
More on Groupon’s woes, from a business model point of view. I really enjoy looking at innovative business models, and the Internet/Social Media realm is a very source of “disruptive” ideas. Caution and common sense still apply, especially when invited to invest in these companies (as per the many IPOs).
Two articles today discussing the coming end of the Facebook IPO lock-up. One argues there may be a sell-off; another, that there could be value in the stock and that the end of the lock-up could be a non-event. As one investor put it, in what has to be the irony of the year, “when does Facebook gets stupid cheap?” Cheap, I don’t know. Stupid, on the other hand, seems to apply to the whole episode.
Zynga’s “crash” story is a bit noisy, but still highlights the old investment dogma: a good business model does not necessarily imply a good investment – and in Zynga’s case, the assertion that it was a good business was never a sure thing.
The Facebook imbroglio had all the elements of a Mexican (or Brazilian, I admit) soap opera: a build-up toward success, then unexpected twists and turns revealing involving falls-from-grace and perhaps even villains. We’re yet to see if there will be any bounce-backs and happy endings. However, the angry reaction to the “soap opera” from the “general audience” – in this case, retail investors who apparently went all-in for the story – still managed to surprise me.
Facebook buys Instagram for US$ 1 billion and we do a linkfest, while wondering what it would take to invest in Facebook. Also: do Brazilians making waves in Silicon Valley signal that Brazil is booming in innovation?
Huge, sprawling article on Business Insider about Groupon since the early beginnings. It’s telling when an article about the big article is 3 pages long. Normally we would recommend reading the summary for conciseness – and because the day only has 24h – but the big article is a keeper. They got almost all of it right, except for the culture change part. It is more important, and far more disruptive, than they make it seem.
We’re at Day Two of the InfoTrends conference in São Paulo about Social Media. It’s been pretty interesting so far. Today we’ll try some live-blogging, and Monday we’ll post the notes from Day One. Just a teaser for the weekend: Julian Assange was the keynote speaker for day one.
Two stories in the “Social Media IPO Candidates” realm got us thinking that corporate governance might be under fire. Zynga is reportedly creating a triple-class share structure and Groupon has apparently engaged – voluntarily or not doesn’t matter – in pre-IPO marketing during its quiet period. “Buyer beware” indeed.
MySpace killed Friendster only to be gobbled up by Facebook. Six years after NewsCorp bought MySpace for US$ 580 million it’s now sold for US$ 35 million. Google just launched its own “Facebook-killer” yesterday. There is absolutely no evidence yet whether Google Plus or any other competitor or substitute will bother Facebook. There is even less evidence about what’s “in the prices” – what prices? what metrics? what predictability of future cash flows? – so Social Media buyer beware.