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	<title>Buysiders.com &#187; valueinvesting</title>
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		<title>Buffett pearl: 1998 speech</title>
		<link>http://www.buysiders.com/2010/02/02/buffett-pearl-1998-speech/</link>
		<comments>http://www.buysiders.com/2010/02/02/buffett-pearl-1998-speech/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Feb 2010 20:21:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>IP</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.buysiders.com/?p=688</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Buffett was particularly expansive regarding his processes and methods, and this alone makes this video worth the time (some 90 minutes). The fact that it was October 1998, a pivotal time in the dot-com boom and just after the LTCM imbroglio makes it even more interesting.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this <a title="Buffett's 1998 speech" href="http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6231308980849895261#" target="_blank">speech to University of Florida MBA students</a> Buffett was particularly expansive regarding his processes and methods, and this alone makes this video worth the time (some 90 minutes). The fact that it was October 1998, a pivotal time in the dot-com boom and just after the LTCM <em>imbroglio</em> makes it even more interesting. And there&#8217;s a download link to guarantee this doesn&#8217;t go away anytime soon, but you can watch an embedded version right here if you read on.<span id="more-688"></span></p>
<p>We don&#8217;t have any intention to be the &#8220;ultimate source for all things Buffett&#8221;, as a lot of people already do a great job at this and we thank them for uncovering these pearls. But this video is special. The parts on &#8220;moats&#8221; add up to some of his most detailed comments yet on the subject.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s any exaggeration to say that Buffett has transcended the investment realm and that this is interesting for people in all walks of life. We&#8217;re certainly making backup copies.</p>
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		<title>Anti-portfolios</title>
		<link>http://www.buysiders.com/2010/01/28/anti-portfolios/</link>
		<comments>http://www.buysiders.com/2010/01/28/anti-portfolios/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jan 2010 20:29:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>IP</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.buysiders.com/?p=674</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the 1st Buysiders article inspired by a reader's suggestion, we'd like to propose "anti-portfolios". It's a vital lesson in humility: our activity involves a certain degree of failure, of missed or simply wrong ideas. Recognizing that we are going to make mistakes over time is extremely important in order to mitigate risk as we define it (the permanent loss of capital). The objective here is to insist, once again, that price is the ultimate measure. (...) After you've done all the homework, you still have to demand a price that implies a large margin of safety - and keep analyzing the position everyday with the same skepticism you had before you bought it.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the first Buysiders article inspired by a reader&#8217;s suggestion, we&#8217;d like to propose &#8220;anti-portfolios&#8221;. It&#8217;s a vital lesson in humility: our activity involves a certain degree of failure, of missed or simply wrong ideas. Recognizing that we are going to make mistakes over time is extremely important in order to mitigate risk as we define it (the permanent loss of capital). Acting on such inherent limitations is something we discussed in our <a title="Fighting cognitive limitations" href="http://www.buysiders.com/2009/09/28/ip-report-quotes-1/" target="_blank">Q1 2008 portfolio report</a>. The objective here is to insist, once again, that price is the ultimate measure. Once you realize how hard it is to do what we do, and after you&#8217;ve done all the homework, then you still have to demand a price that implies a large margin of safety &#8211; and keep analyzing the position everyday with the same skepticism you had before you bought it.<span id="more-674"></span></p>
<p>Price is <strong>the</strong> key, and many investors forget that it&#8217;s not enough that the business is great and the managers competent and even that the company has the &#8220;outside signs&#8221;/ usual &#8220;seals&#8221; of corporate governance or credit ratings &#8211; or even environmental best practices &#8211; when it comes to estimating a range of values&#8230; Corporate governance and alignment must be great <span style="text-decoration: underline;">in the real world</span>. Unfortunately, that is very hard to find and hard to quantify, so those seeking algebraic approaches to long-term investing do so at their own risk.</p>
<p>Which takes us to &#8220;Anti-portfolio one&#8221;. This comes courtesy of a reader who was discussing precisely the issue of price with us a few days ago. Then he found <a title="Stocks for 2010 - Feb. 2000, NYT" href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.html" target="_blank">a pearl of an article in the New York Times</a> dated February 20th, 2000 &#8211; the peak of the Internet/ Nasdaq bubble &#8211; where a few managers listed their chosen stock to own until January 1st, 2010. That is, if you could own only one stock from early 2000 for the next ten years, what would it be?</p>
<p>The answers are interesting because a few of these companies haven&#8217;t survived, one was the object of a major accounting scandal, and so on. But we don&#8217;t want to focus on the companies themselves, but on the reasons given, the &#8220;case&#8221; made at the time. The arguments, especially regarding the earnings multiples at the time, seem preposterous and could be dismissed as &#8220;bubble talk&#8221;, but recent years have proven that we don&#8217;t learn this kind of lesson easily&#8230; And we go back to the point of price: yes, multiples can be misleading, but regardless of the measure, the price you pay has to take into consideration that even the best-planned strategies executed by the best managers can go wrong in too many ways.</p>
<p>In the other corner, &#8220;<a title="Bessemer Venture Partners - Anti-portolio" href="http://www.bvp.com/Portfolio/AntiPortfolio.aspx" target="_blank">Anti-portfolio two</a>&#8221; was found by our Healthcare analyst when he was researching a relatively newcomer to the sector and found that traditional VC firm Bessemer Venture Partners was one of the seed investors. The firm itself built an &#8220;anti-portfolio&#8221; section in their website that, well, has to be seen to be believed &#8211; and still Bessemer has done quite well&#8230; This example is about what Buffett calls &#8220;sins of omission&#8221; &#8211; he often mentions Wal-Mart, which he tried to penny-pinch and ended up losing &#8220;Billions&#8221; over time as the company became the behemoth it is today.</p>
<p>Finally, we&#8217;d like to thank our reader and urge others to follow his example! As always, send us your suggestions via the e-mail <a title="Send us an e-mail!" href="mailto:editor@buysiders.com" target="_blank">editor@buysiders.com</a> .</p>
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		<title>Keeping tabs on VIC&#8217;s twitter</title>
		<link>http://www.buysiders.com/2009/10/19/keeping-tabs-on-vic-twitter/</link>
		<comments>http://www.buysiders.com/2009/10/19/keeping-tabs-on-vic-twitter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:16:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>IP</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.buysiders.com/?p=432</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Value Investing Congress is taking place in NYC and here's the Twitter feed. This is a quick post with some highlights of what went on in the first day. We have attended the VIC in other occasions, but not this year. If you're ever in NY during this time of the year, it's worth a shot.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <a title="VIC website" href="http://www.valueinvestingcongress.com/" target="_blank">Value Investing Congress</a> is taking place in NYC and <a title="VIC Twitter" href="http://twitter.com/VICongress" target="_blank">here&#8217;s the Twitter</a> feed. This is a quick post with some highlights of what went on in the first day. We have attended the VIC in other occasions, but not this year. If you&#8217;re ever in NY during this time of the year, it&#8217;s worth a shot.<span id="more-432"></span></p>
<p>1) By Lord Khaner: &#8220;<strong>We have CEO family trees; people who’ve had lots of success have trained people who had lots of success</strong>&#8220;. For those of us who are enamored with &#8220;built to last&#8221;, &#8220;good to great&#8221; and &#8220;business models/competitive advantage&#8221;, it&#8217;s nice to keep in mind that companies are run by real people with processes/systems/culture/discipline/execution &#8216;kits&#8217; that sometimes &#8216;scale&#8217;. Gillette&#8217;s CFO took its ZBB to Avon. Lemann was at Gillette&#8217;s board and later Marcel brought the system to Ambev and then Inbev.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s funny, but in Brazil CEO family trees are hard to find in Brazil. Interestingly, at the global level in the asset management world there are lots of examples. Bob Rubin and Julian Robertson are, for example, prolific fund manager family trees.</p>
<p>2) Julian Robertson: characterized himself as the &#8220;anti-gold bug&#8221;. Likes the Norwegian krona is concerned about the British Pound.</p>
<p>3) Einhorn: using options to bet against Japanese long-term rates lowering; can clearly limit losses while creating as much leverage as possible. &#8220;Picking among fiat currencies is like picking your favorite dental procedure; chose gold instead&#8221;.</p>
<p>4) <a title="Joel Greenblatt video" href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1300055094&amp;play=1" target="_blank">Joel Greenblatt video</a>: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1300055094&amp;play=1" target="_blank"></a> Among other things, he announces the launching his www.formulainvesting.com site &#8211; that he also marketed at VIC. Worth visiting.</p>
<p>5) &#8220;Waste Management&#8221; emerged as one of the ideas (Paul Isaac). The waste management/waste-to-energy sector has been under consolidation (there are clear local scale advantages) and there are other strong players like Republic Services, Covanta Holdings. This magazine looks good for the sector: <a href="http://wasteage.com/" target="_blank">http://wasteage.com/</a></p>
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