Web2.0
As we blog and try to become more transparent for investors, potential investors and even invested companies, we’re aware of the dangers of over-exposure and “posing”, as these two NY Times pieces highlight. We feel we’re safe because 1) Transparency has always been our culture: we pioneered fund reports in Brazil, then annual investor meetings, and now this blog – and more to come; 2) We’re aware of the risks and have built our processes and incentive systems accordingly; and 3) We tend to assume we’re wrong – meaning we’re conservative. Since we recognize we’re learning as much as everybody else is, we will prefer to err on the side of omission.
Zynga keeps popping up on the news as it reportedly heads for an IPO, and one piece asked if it can become the Google of online games. Sure, the business model seems fantastic – precisely what usually attracts competitors. So far they have suffered and didn’t really appear to threaten Zynga. Now Disney is making a move and it’s easy to imagine other players joining the battle. Plus, thinking about games reminded us of Electronic Arts.
Zynga Games creates games for Facebook and MySpace. Its users number in the tens of millions, and many of them pay real cash for virtual goods to spice up their gaming. In fact, Zynga might well be making more money with Facebook than Facebook itself is. In paper, the business model seems great. We’ll probably get to know this soon, since Zynga is supposedly preparing for an IPO. Anyway it’s a huge reminder that disrupting technologies don’t necessarily imply that the inventors will make the most money – in some cases, any money. For new and old industries, always look at the entire value chain, be it suppliers, service providers, etc.
DARPA, the US military agency that 40 years ago spawned the Internet, organized a contest to study how people collaborate online and, most importantly, how information spreads virally through social media tools such as Facebook and Twitter. The winning team took less than 9 hours to locate 10 balloons spread throughout the US – unthinkable maybe even 5 years ago… And the implications are quite interesting.
